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GMI Coursework 1 2025
Central banks and their policies play a crucial role in the investment decision-making process.
Their significant influence requires consistent communication with the public to manage
expectations, making them essential for close monitoring. Included with this coursework is a
speech by the Federal Reserve Chairman at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium (also
accessible via this link). Please read the script. Then, using the knowledge gained from this
module and your independent research, write an essay.
You are expected to address the following points in your essay:
1. What was the market outlook for U.S. economic development and interest rate
projections around the time the speech was given
2. Based on the information you gathered, if you were a fund manager with no
investment constraints, how would you have constructed your portfolio at the time
the speech was given, and why
3. It has been about six months since the speech was delivered. Has the market’s
assessment of economic conditions and interest rate projections changed Based on
the new information, how would you rebalance your portfolio when writing the
essay, and why
Additional Information to Consider:
1. This is an individual essay. The submission deadline is 14:00 pm 14/02/2025 on Learn.
2. The word count limit for the essay is 1,500 words, excluding footnotes, figures,
references, and tables. The marker will only read the first 1,500 words, ignoring any
content beyond that point.
3. You are not required to evenly split your essay to address the questions, but all of them
must be addressed.
4. Do not write this in the form of bullet points or short answers, as if responding to an
exam paper. Ensure the essay has a clear and logical structure. However, an abstract,
table of contents, and introduction are not required.
5. Focus on providing a thorough analysis of a few key points rather than presenting
numerous arguments without in-depth discussion.
Additional Q&A can be found at the end of the document. The file will be updated
throughout the term as more questions arise.
A good submission should demonstrate:
a. Adherence to Task Requirements:
Ensure that you carefully read and fully address all aspects of the task. Avoid neglecting
any part of the instructions and refrain from including irrelevant or overly generic
discussions.
b. Competence in argument-making:
Your arguments should be clear, logical, and well-structured. The rationale behind your
arguments must be explicit and grounded in finance and investment theory, rather than
relying on general brainstorming. Decisions and recommendations should align closely
with the theoretical framework presented in the module.
c. Adequate use of data and figures for support:
Data and visualizations should be used to support your ideas and arguments effectively.
However, ensure that the data and figures are relevant and directly related to the text.
Avoid excessive or unnecessary use of tables and figures that do not align with the
discussion. Sources of information should be reliable and comprehensive.
d. A high level of critical thinking skills:
Your essay should demonstrate an ability to refine and synthesize material learned in
the module. Strive to gather diverse perspectives and critically assess them. Your own
assessment should be clearly stated, well-reasoned, and supported by evidence.
e. Good referencing, writing, and presentation style:
You may use either APA or Harvard referencing style, ensuring that references are
professional and adhere to academic standards. Arguments made by others must be
properly cited. Clearly label the sources of your data and figures. Ensure the document
is professionally formatted, paying attention to font size, line spacing, and the
appearance of tables. The language should be academic and formal, avoiding
conversational tones.
The marking rubric can be found below:
Weight Criteria Excellent (>70) Good (60+) Satisfactory (50+) Poor (40+) Unsatisfactory
(<40) 20% Adherence to Task Requirements Fully addresses all parts of the task; no irrelevant or generic content included. Addresses most parts of the task; minimal irrelevant or generic content. Addresses the main aspects of the task but misses some details; some irrelevant content. Misses key parts of the task; significant irrelevant or generic discussion. Does not address the task; irrelevant or generic content dominates. 20% Competence in Argument-Making Arguments are clear, logical, and grounded in finance and investment theory; recommendations align with the disussion. Arguments are mostly clear and logical, with good alignment to finance theory. Arguments are somewhat clear but may lack depth or alignment with the framework. Arguments are unclear or poorly developed; minimal connection to finance theory. Little to no logical argumentation; no alignment with the framework. 20% Adequate Use of Data and visualizations Data and visualizations are highly relevant, clearly integrated, and well-labeled; sources are reliable and comprehensive. Data and visualizations are relevant and support arguments; sources are mostly reliable. Data and visualizations are used but may lack relevance or integration; sources are acceptable. Limited use of data; visualizations may be irrelevant or poorly integrated. Data is missing or irrelevant; visualizations are absent or improperly used. 20% Critical Thinking Demonstrates strong critical thinking with well-reasoned assessments; synthesizes diverse perspectives effectively. Demonstrates good critical thinking; assessments are reasonable and supported. Demonstrates some critical thinking but lacks depth or originality in assessment. Limited critical thinking; assessments are shallow or poorly supported. Little to no evidence of critical thinking; assessments are absent or unsupported. 20% Good Referencing, Writing, and Presentation Style Professional referencing and formatting; clear, academic language with consistent style and structure. Mostly professional referencing and formatting; minor language or formatting issues. Adequate referencing and presentation; some inconsistency in language or formatting. Referencing and formatting are inconsistent; language may lack professionalism. Poor referencing and formatting; language is informal and unsuitable for academia. Q&A: 1. 1. What is the maximum acceptable similarity score The similarity score is not used as a strict threshold to determine acceptability. Properly cited and referenced material is not considered an issue, even if the similarity score exceeds 30%. However, if similarity is identified in a block of content created by others and is not properly cited, this is considered academic misconduct, even if the similarity score is as low as 5%. 2. Can I use AI to assist me in writing The module follows the university guidelines on AI usage. While AI is not banned, it must be used appropriately. In general, the content and ideas should be your own work, but using AI as a supportive tool in the writing process is allowed. For example: Allowed Practices: a. Using AI to correct typos and grammar errors. b. Using AI to simplify the process of learning new concepts. c. Using AI as a discussion tool to clarify ideas. Prohibited Practices: a. Writing bullet points and asking AI to expand them into an essay. b. Copying and pasting AI-generated content directly into your essay and claiming it as your own work. c. Using AI to analyze text or data and use the generated content as your own. In general, AI-generated content is easy to identify and often contains misinformation. Use these tools cautiously. Misuse of AI is considered academic misconduct and will be addressed seriously. 3. What is the specific time range for "the time around the speech was given" The time frame refers to an approximately two-month window: one month before and one month after the speech was delivered. 4. Can you clarify what you mean by "how would you construct your portfolio" The question seeks a qualitative rather than a quantitative answer. You are expected to share your perspective on which asset class, sector, or similar categories you would overweight. Alternatively, you may state that you would allocate entirely to a specific type of asset. The specific decision itself is not as important as whether your analysis supports the recommendation. You are not required to construct a portfolio in a quantitative manner (e.g., assigning precise weights to each asset class or sector). 5. What would be the investment horizon For our purposes, assume an investment horizon of 12 months. 6. Do I need to analyze information about other countries The focus of the question is primarily on analyzing the U.S. market. However, if your analysis concludes that avoiding the U.S. market in favor of another country is a better option, this is acceptable—provided you present convincing arguments to support your decision. 7. What do you mean by finance and investment theory This refers to theories and concepts related to what you have learned or will learn in this module. Please note that these theories should be applied in a way that directly informs your investment decisions, as most macroeconomic theories are not specifically designed for this purpose. Here, the term 'theory' should be interpreted loosely—I am not referring to the complex models you are likely to encounter in the macroeconomics module. 8. Should I treat the three questions independently, or should the answers be connected Please treat all the questions as parts of a single task. A helpful way to approach this is to consider that the ultimate goal of your analysis is to make an investment decision. The questions we have designed are simply meant to break this process down into three steps. This means that the information and arguments in these different steps should be coherent and logically connected. 9. Do I need to mention specific securities in which I will invest Not really. This task is intended to be more macro-level, so the focus should be on asset classes or sectors rather than individual securities. That said, it is fine to narrow your focus to a more clearly defined subgroup. For example, you could argue that you prefer to invest in long-term, low-risk corporate bonds, but you don’t need to specify a particular bond, such as one issued by Bank of America. 10. Can you further clarify the relevant time range Due to the nature of investment practice, it is neither common nor useful to strictly define a cutoff date for which information should be used or ignored. Some sources of information are updated more frequently than others, and setting a clear date might unintentionally bias the weighting of different types of information. Therefore, the precise timing of the information is not part of our assessment. Instead, the relevant time range should be defined by topic rather than specific dates. For example, around the Jackson Hole Symposium, certain key points were frequently mentioned and considered important. Similarly, when writing your essay, you may identify other topics that are relevant at that time. Any discussion related to these topics within their respective time frames is considered relevant.